Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories

Abstract

Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modeling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modeling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts – and alternative future scenarios – for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.